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“Information analysis is a complex and difficult field.

It’s not just about processing collected data or intelligence to create information. Instead, it requires describing, explaining, and evaluating so that the person in need can interpret it and draw conclusions.

Moreover, the subject changes every time, making it unpredictable. One must consider the types of national interests, the relationship between national security, policy, and information, as well as how the report’s consumers will perceive it.

That’s why information agencies classify information analysis into a total of six stages.

Stage one: Define the subject.

Stage two: Set up a hypothesis.

Stage three: Collect intelligence to test the hypothesis.

Stage four: Evaluate the hypothesis.

Stage five: Select the hypothesis.

Finally, stage six: Verification and monitoring.

Through these stages, using quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques to analyze intelligence produces ‘information.’ And there are roughly dozens of analysis methods.

So, if I were to say it in layman’s terms, information analysis is like hard labor.”

* * *

Episode 10 – Turn Northwest

* * *

Preparing a late dinner, I sat on the living room sofa and carefully read the plan that Camila had drafted.

Tonight’s dinner was dumpling soup. Not Korean, but styled after Azerbaijani cuisine.

The main ingredient was lamb. A small dumpling soup with juicy and delicious lamb meat inside. I didn’t remember the name. It was too old a memory to recall.

Slurp. The warm broth flowed down, heating my belly. I cautiously dipped my spoon while trying not to let the paper get wet.

“…Hmm.”

To summarize the lengthy report in one line: She wanted to analyze the situation regarding the Kien Empire and the magic realm conflict.

Understanding the situation among civilians, officials, and military in the northern conflict zones, distinguishing safe from dangerous areas, and ultimately gauging the northern threats to create useful material for future activities—that was the theme Camila desired.

I turned my head and looked at her sitting at the kitchen table.

“Camila, how do you plan to collect the data?”

“OSINT.”

Camila, while having dinner, began explaining.

“I checked at the hotel, and it seems the Empire’s broadcasts are coming in clearly. There are quite a few articles related to the conflict in the international news section of the Abas Broadcasting Company and in the newspapers, especially about the Magic Tower.”

“…”

“Also, I found reports for travelers’ safety going to the Empire from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as reports from international humanitarian organizations. I plan to gather those first and start from there.”

OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) allows legal information collection, making it a safe way to gather materials. It’s cost-effective and easily accessible—hence it was an option for Camila.

However.

“If you’ve taken a national intelligence course, you must know the downsides of OSINT too, right?”

While dipping half a potato into salt, Camila swallowed it.

“Open source information is easily accessible, which increases the likelihood of collecting excessive data. The quality of intelligence is generally lower than other methods, leading to very low reliability. Am I right?”

“Yes.”

Indeed.

OSINT is easily handled even by civilians like Camila, but that ease becomes a problem.

You can easily spot fools on Twitter or Facebook posting photos about the India-China border dispute when those pictures are actually from years ago in Africa, showing clashes between rebels and government forces. And it’s not uncommon to come across attention seekers tweeting, “I just heard from my friend that~” without any actual photos or videos.

While data from credible news organizations or civil groups is relatively better, they also make occasional mistakes, proving that OSINT isn’t exactly trustworthy.

Intelligence agencies are aware of such issues.

That’s why they have dedicated departments for OSINT and materials to refer to the reliability of information sources, sometimes collecting the same data through other means like HUMINT (spying) or TECHINT (eavesdropping, satellite observation) for cross-verification.

But that’s a matter for intelligence agencies.

If you ask whether civilians like Camila possess such capabilities, I could only tilt my head in doubt.

Tsk, I clicked my tongue softly while wiping my mouth with a tissue.

“Anyway, it’s still fine. You can think of this as experience. I’ll help you along the way, so let’s proceed as planned.”

As Camila was pouring ketchup onto a potato, she replied, “But why am I having potatoes for dinner?”

“Weight control.”

“……”

* * *

And thus, the serious training and preparatory work began.

We made an effort to use our 24 hours of time efficiently, meticulously planning every minute.

Upon waking in the early morning, the first thing I did was dash to the TV to watch the news. I turned on the reports from major Empire news agencies.

“The Kien media is divided into 12 major newspapers and 8 broadcasting stations, excluding radio broadcasting and local newspapers with specific regional ties.”

“What’s the inclination of these media outlets?”

“Many of them are centrist-conservative or hardline conservative in nature, often showing loyalty to the royal family. There are about two moderately radical reform-oriented broadcasters, but their executives or journalists frequently face white terror, so they are quite intimidated. Officially, there is only one state-run broadcaster operated by the government.”

Camila listened to the news aired by the centrist media of the Empire.

She rose early to review the news and was having breakfast while cycling through other news broadcasts that had been automatically recorded overnight.

I handed her articles sent by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding Empire newspapers and contributions from overseas correspondents.

“There are so many articles. But why isn’t this side showing up?”

“It’s due to the resolution. These articles are materials sent from the diplomatic mission on the Mauritania continent. Many of those countries don’t have a proper communication network, hence this delay sometimes.”

Camila stared intently at the screen while brushing her teeth. It took a bit of patience to read an article since a single line would pop up after about 2 minutes of waiting.

For reference, the articles were in their original form, so neither of us needed translation and could read them comfortably.

“I can’t do this. I need time to download the materials, so let’s start with training first.”

After breakfast and reviewing the news and articles, we entered shooting practice.

Like yesterday, Camila alternated between using the rifle and the pistol, practicing mobile shooting. When I blew the whistle after pushing the vehicle from behind, she quickly ducked for cover and started firing at the target.

As she fired hundreds of rounds, I brought a device outside to organize the materials.

Even in the chilling air, I warmed my frozen hands while typing on the keyboard.

Seeing that, Camila, who was taking a break, said, “Don’t you have gloves? It’s freezing out here…. Want me to take these off for you?”

“No. Just keep wearing the gloves. I can’t type with gloves on, you see. It’s not like this is a laptop.”

“Oh dear… It’d be nice if something similar to a rugged laptop existed, but it’s a pity. A senior who quit after working at the UN always carried around a DELL laptop.”

“DELL’s rugged laptop is great. I also carried that when I was in intelligence.”

After shooting practice, we had an early lunch.

Unlike me, who was tapping away at the device while my breath turned white, Camila, who was running about energetically, took off her bulletproof vest because she felt hot.

She placed her sweat-drenched vest by the fireplace, but since it was midwinter, the smell inside the house was overwhelmingly stuffy and stagnant.

I wanted to tell her to hurry and wash up, but there was no time for that. While Camila was seated at the dining table reading the downloaded materials, I held my nose and microwaved some ready-to-eat meal.

“Let’s just have a simple lunch and be done with it.”

“Sure.”

Camila twirled the spilled spaghetti around her fork and shoved it into her mouth as she scrolled down.

I sneaked a glance and saw that the article was written by war correspondents from pro-Empire nations. They were among the few journalists who could traverse the north, a region even Empire citizens couldn’t recklessly enter.

Camila continued reading the article while munching on her spaghetti for quite some time.

She was so focused that she didn’t even take a bathroom break, seemingly unaware that the spaghetti she had put down temporarily was about to burst.

“……”

Having finished my share of spaghetti, I began examining related agency reports.

Reports created by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Kien Empire’s political and economic trends and threat assessments.

Weekly warning forecasts and daily reports produced by the Royal Intelligence Department.

Defense information assessments and intelligence memos sent by the Military Intelligence Agency, and so on.

The materials were varied.

Among them were materials made by the legislative assembly based on information collected by Abas congress members visiting the Empire, materials created by domestic information agencies like the Cabinet Security Office or the Special Investigation Bureau, newsletters from international relief organizations, letters from Abas to the Empire, and even content intercepted from an international call made by an Abas citizen calling relatives living in the Empire. The last one was questionable regarding lawfulness. I could tell that if it leaked to the media, someone would be in serious trouble.

While I was glancing at the screen intently,

-♪

“What was that sound?”

“Oh, it’s my phone.”

“You had a phone?”

“I activated it a few days ago.”

A call came in.

It was a call from family.

* * *

Under the cold winter sky, clouds filled the air. It was already gloomy, and the addition of ominous dark clouds made it slightly depressing.

I rubbed my finger on the frosty window as I answered the call.

“Yeah. Older Brother Jerry.”

-‘Oh, were you awake?’

A tired voice came from the other side.

It was a call from my older brother Jerry, a Treasury Department official.

-‘Where are you? At the townhouse?’

“No, I just stepped out for a bit. It’s my vacation, so sitting at home the whole time isn’t great.”

-‘Who are you with?’

“Just a friend.”

On the other end, Jerry mumbled incredulously.

-‘… You’ve got friends?’

“Geez. Why are you calling and saying such nonsense?”

-‘You sound grumpy.’

The number displayed on my screen had the area code of Abas capital. This meant that Jerry wasn’t calling from a personal mobile phone but through a landline.

And Jerry used the phone only when he was at his office in the Treasury Department.

“Looks like you’re living it up? Making calls while working.”

-‘Is there anything wrong with a quick call during work hours?’

“What do you need?”

Through the phone, I heard his lips move.

-‘Yesterday, you went out for a bit and didn’t come back until dawn. Adela called me because she was worried about you. That’s why I’m reaching out.’

“Oh.”

So that was why. It dawned on me that I hadn’t informed Adela that I’d be out late. I also hadn’t told Lucia I’d be away in advance.

“……”

Well, Lucia would understand.

I instinctively switched the phone to my other hand and shoved my hand into my pocket.

-‘What on earth are you doing?’

“Taking leave and being out late doesn’t mean I need to ask for permission. I’m not a teenager, after all.”

-‘That’s true. But Adela’s worried, so it’d be good to let her know next time before you go out.’

“Fine, I’ll think about it.”

I glanced over at the kitchen. Camila was examining Foreign Ministry paperwork carefully, a blanket draped over her shoulders.

“Is that all you wanted to discuss?”

-‘Well, that’s not all. I called to tell you that next week’s family gathering has been postponed.’

“What?”

-‘Dad and Mom’s holidays didn’t quite align. Mom easily got permission from the palace, but Dad is a bit delayed due to scheduling conflicts. The Treasury Department is swamped these days with projects like the redevelopment of the Magic Tower and investment issues on the Mauritania continent… and there’s also the Eastern market expansion stuff.’

The economy of Abas is under the full responsibility of the Treasury Department. It’s as if they combined the Ministry of Planning and the Ministry of Trade and Industry into one.

Naturally, that meant they had a lot of work. Treasury Department officials often had late nights and it wasn’t easy for them to take vacations.

“How long is the delay?”

-‘Hmm, about two days or so?’

Jerry continued explaining as a Treasury officer.

-‘They’ll handle the urgent matters first, so two days should be enough. Mom will go down to the family home first to prepare, and Dad should be there soon enough. By the way, Adela and I are going down early too. What about you?’

“I’ll head down on my own. I have some things to take care of.”

-‘Then don’t delay and come down on time. Don’t keep the family waiting.’

“Sure.”

-‘Talk later.’

Jerry yawned tiredly as he was about to hang up the phone.

“Ah, wait a moment.”

I eagerly stopped Jerry, who was about to cut off the call.

“What about that kid?”

-‘And why do you keep calling her a kid…’

“So when is she arriving?”

-‘I have no idea. But it’s said she’ll come before Dad’s leave starts.’

“…Really?”

So that’s the case.

I hung up the phone, grinning widely. I suddenly heard Jerry’s voice, warning me not to fight since it had been three years since the family last met, but I brushed it off.

Ending the call, I returned to the kitchen smiling.

“Why are you grinning? Did something good happen?”

“Yeah.”

Camila, who had been reading, tilted her head, wondering, but eventually mumbled, “That’s a relief,” and focused her gaze back on the screen.

* * *

In the afternoon, the weather took a sharp turn for the worse. A snowstorm raged outside.

The target we planned to use for shooting practice was buried under snow, and the roads I had kept an eye on for possibly needing travel were now completely covered in snow.

“The snow is really coming down. They didn’t forecast this much earlier.”

Camila, wrapped in the blanket, looked out the window.

The blanket I had retrieved from the closet had signs of being gnawed by mice, so I had no choice but to put on the one that was in relatively better condition.

“It might be unpredictable due to the extreme cold snap?”

“Perhaps the weather forecast might have missed the mark. They could’ve made a mistake.”

I nodded while pushing logs into the fireplace. Indeed, there was some truth in that claim.

Thanks to the unexpected heavy snowfall, the shooting practice planned for the afternoon was canceled.

If it had been in an indoor shooting range, we could have trained regardless of rain or snow, but unfortunately, safe housing was not an option for practice…

The facility was outdoors.

We were stuck at home, covered in blankets, sipping tea. Just a moment ago, I had seen the window shaking, snow piling up outside, yet Camila merely giggled, saying it looked “just like a scene from a movie where someone gets stuck in a cabin.”

As the kettle on the stove began to bubble, Camila sweetly initiated a conversation while sipping cocoa.

“What do you think?”

“What are you talking about?”

“Do you think the analysis is going well?”

Nodding as I reviewed the draft Camila had prepared, I began to assess it.

The analysis of the Kien Empire – Magic Territory conflict was underway.

It aimed to understand the situations of civilians, government, and military. Classifying safe areas and dangerous zones, they sought to detect threats and gather data for future actions.

Her goals and topics for information analysis were quite broad.

So, needless to say, I was somewhat worried.

Initially, I had my doubts about whether she could handle such a vast subject, and I questioned if she could effectively manage OSINT. Yet, those thoughts faded somewhat as I looked at the document she had produced.

I calmly evaluated her analysis.

“Honestly, I was worried at first. It was a pretty extensive subject after all. I wondered how she would set specific goals and hypotheses, and I had no idea how to obtain credible intelligence from government-controlled media.”

But hey.

“You did better than I expected.”

“Hehe.”

The report wasn’t finished yet, and it was still a draft, so I couldn’t draw any firm conclusions just yet. Still, Camila handled open-source information far better than I imagined, and she demonstrated exceptional talent in analysis.

This is why companies hire educated people, I suppose.

“You’re certainly smart. Most of my British friends I knew were from Oxford, Cambridge, or the London School of Economics. They were remarkably bright. Their creativity helped them come up with ideas I never would have thought of.”

“SIS? Or SS?”

“There’s SIS, DI, and one friend from GCHQ.”

Given that Camila was still an undergraduate, she might be lagging behind those colleagues. However, I had faith that she’d become a brilliant information officer once she graduated and got practical assignments.

I took a slurp of my black tea and said to Camila, “If you have questions about the information analysis, ask me now. We’ll be busy analyzing all afternoon. Feel free to ask when you have some downtime.”

“Uh, well….”

Placing the documents on her terminal, Camila sat next to me.

There was no lovely flowery scent wafting through the air; only the stale odor that lingered from the sweat of our long day.

Of course, I probably smelled just as bad. So, when our eyes met, we could only share awkward smiles. Should’ve washed up beforehand, I thought.

To break the awkward atmosphere, Camila adjusted the screen. Then, tidying up the documents, she began to ask her questions.

“First off, there’s the issue of transportation and power networks.”

“Yes.”

“By any chance, where can we source such data? I’d like to know the specifics of support like power, water, medical supplies, and food heading north.”

Camila displayed one document on the screen, sighing.

It was a report published by an international relief organization, stating that medical and food supplies were severely lacking in the Kien Empire’s northern regions, the power and water supply were unstable, clean drinking water was scarce, and that support from the international community was urgent, etc.

There were no specific figures or graphs, just vague text on the page.

“I think the reliability of this source is high since it’s from an international relief organization. However, lacking specific figures makes it impossible to assess the credibility of the intelligence.”

“Hmm.”

I opened the secure terminal. Searching for any related materials in the database, I found a report titled ‘Border Conflict Status Report’ distributed just this morning by the ‘Consulate General of the Tarkhan Republic in the Kien Empire’.

Found it.

“Here’s a document.”

“Oh.”

The ‘Border Conflict Status Report’ contained several key points, albeit briefly.

Polluted water resources, refugee movement routes, insufficient heating facilities, medical supplies for the Tarkhan Republic, which is a ‘blood alliance’ with the Kien Empire, food distribution preparations, improved military supply quality, and government response guidelines, among other things.

It included a qualitative report with simple charts and graphs, as well as maps. I transferred the documents to Camila’s terminal using a cable.

Next.

“What else do you need?”

“Um. Could you help me for a moment? There are a few things in the documents I don’t quite understand.”

“Let’s take a look.”

As Camila began typing, videos and articles related to the briefings popped up. The clips of the government spokesperson and military government spokesperson began playing.

Focusing on the calmly spoken words of the spokesperson, Camila brought up an article beside it.

From the ‘Bahram Times’, a well-known media outlet with pro-imperial leanings.

“This article says that northern teachers protesting against government policies were arrested during a small demonstration. And the military government spokesperson? Anyway, the spokesperson in military attire categorized the incident as an act against the state and called for punishment.”

Camila asked, “Is it possible that protesting under martial law is considered an act against the state? If that’s how the law views it. The question is, why did the teachers protest?”

“…Hmm, that’s quite puzzling.”

Let’s look into it.

I access the database, searching through the series of measures the imperial government carried out before and after the declaration of martial law.

After reviewing documents from this year back to four years ago, one video from the spokesperson of the Ministry of Defense caught my eye.

[Access to the north under martial law will be restricted, but economic activities will remain as free as in peacetime, and permits will be granted for essential personnel and transportation methods. The Military Government Headquarters will do its utmost to maintain peace and safety….]

In an instant, something crossed my mind. I started searching for the laws of the Kien Empire.

About 10 minutes later, I found an interesting clause in the Kien Empire’s labor laws.

“Employers who delay and deny payment of wages to workers will be punished under the law. Furthermore, workers whose wages have been delayed are allowed to strike in accordance with their constitutional right to assemble and organize.

However, in times of war, natural disasters, or emergency situations like martial law,

government employees affiliated with all government agencies—including defense, security, law enforcement, and emergency services—are prohibited from ceasing their duties.”

Just then, Camila, who had been quietly observing, found some new information in the documents from the Abas Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“The article mentioned the teachers protested due to unpaid wages.”

“According to the labor laws, civil servants are prohibited from protesting under martial law. And according to the laws of the Empire, teachers at schools and academies are all considered civil servants.”

So naturally, they must have been protesting and gotten caught. Of course, the Empire’s style is to connect legitimate protests with arrests anyway.

Looking at it from this perspective, the average person would think, “Ah, those idiots are at it again…”. But my thoughts were slightly different.

Unpaid wages for government employees? This seems like a serious issue.

Camila seemed to agree as she read through the documents I had sent earlier from the Tarkhan Republic Consulate.

“It seems the situation in the north is worse than expected. If civil servants are going without pay, what must be happening to the private sector workers?”

“Well, we can’t know, can we?”

The imperial media would never report that, nor would the war correspondents sent from friendly countries to the Empire.

Even a conscientious reporter would likely have their work thrown out by the desk. And soon, that reporter’s press credentials would be revoked, and they’d be arrested by military police.

I reviewed the military government’s press materials to see if there was any mention of foreigners.

“Don’t worry too much. Soon when we go to the north, you will see firsthand what’s happening there.”

“Hmm. So are we going to help those people?”

As if.

Even if the Abas government said it would support the ‘humanitarian relief activities’ of Camila and Lucia, the Kien Empire government wouldn’t allow it. Dictatorships usually only want to show what they want to show.

But it felt a bit wrong to say that directly, so I could only mumble a vague answer.

“Alright, next. Do you have more questions?”

“Yes, it’s about the movement of the Kien military.”

“Sure.”

Photos and articles popped up on the screen. Camila pointed to a specific image.

“Here, a few months ago, there’s a photo of an armored unit composed of tanks and armored vehicles moving north.”

It was a familiar sight.

The unit in the photo was the same armored unit that had appeared near the Magic Tower a few months back. As I scanned the recognizable insignia slowly, Camila pointed to another photo and continued speaking.

This time it showed infantry, not tanks or armored vehicles.

“However, just a few weeks ago, an article reported that a special forces unit called the ’35th Independent Special Operations Regiment’ had been dispatched to the north.”

The 35th Independent Special Operations Regiment.

There were many special forces units affiliated with the Kien Empire army. However, not all of those units were considered special operations forces.

Just like how Legion paratroopers or division reconnaissance teams are not the same level as special forces units like the UDT, there are many units that just slapped ‘special’ on their names and classified them as special operations forces in the Empire.

For reference, all the Empire’s special forces are under the control of the Reconnaissance Command.

It’s akin to how the Russian GRU and North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau control special forces units.

“…….”

So, a special operations unit managed by military intelligence went to the north. I quickly had an inkling of what might be happening.

“It’s probably for a major spy operation.”

“A major spy operation?”

“The demon kin are sending armed agents to strike at the northern infrastructure. That’s why the power, magic, and water supplies aren’t seamless anymore. Disrupting things by blowing up roads and dams wreaks havoc.”

“Oh, so this special forces unit was deployed for that reason?”

“I can’t be sure, but it looks that way. The 35th Special Operations Regiment is one of the units responsible for immediate counter-terrorism measures. They might be rotating in and out with other regiments stationed up north.”

That’s all I could convey for now.

While I know which unit would be withdrawing if they rotated in and out, and which special operations regiments were stationed in the north, it wasn’t something I could disclose. After all, Camila didn’t need to know that.

I let out a faint sigh and checked the time. It was already time for dinner.

“It’s dinner time. Let’s pause for a moment and eat first.”

“…Wait.”

Camila placed her hand on my shoulder. Just as I was about to rise to prepare dinner, I plopped back into my seat.

“What’s the matter?”

“Just wait a moment.”

With a serious expression that I couldn’t decipher, Camila began tapping on her terminal. Numerous articles and data surged onto the screen in a chaotic stream, disappearing in fits and starts.

As if possessed by something, she rummaged through the data while I sat there, wondering what she was up to.

About three minutes later.

Having found something, Camila tapped my shoulder and pointed at the screen.

“Look at this.”

“What’s this?”

It was an article that had just been published the other day.

In the small two-part headline, the phrase “Imperial Special Forces stationed in the capital” caught my attention.

Camila asked, “How do military units typically travel from the south to the north?”

“By train. They have military plans for transporting infantry units by rail during wartime or martial law.”

“So, how long does it take to travel from the southernmost to the northernmost points?”

“Usually, it takes about three days at the fastest, and up to five days at the slowest.”

For reference, it takes about seven days for the Trans-Siberian train to reach its destination.

Camila pointed out, “Isn’t it strange that a special operation unit that left a few weeks ago to stop sabotage in the north is still stationed in the capital?”

“…….”

“Of course, they may have left for reasons other than sabotage, but…. Logically, they wouldn’t deploy a special force to the front lines without a reason.”

“That’s true.”

“Then it means they had another purpose for leaving the south….”

Why are they stationed in the capital instead of the north?

“…….”

“…….”

We stared blankly at each other.

Something unusual is happening.

 

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